The sports data desk

Opportunity comes first.
Start with the snap count.

NFL analysis built from usage data rather than box scores: snap share, route participation, target share, red-zone opportunity and what each one actually predicts for fantasy football and player props.

The playbook

Usage

All usage & snap counts →

  1. Red-Zone Usage: Where Fantasy Points Are Actually Scored

    Red-zone targets and carries are a separate signal from overall volume. Here is how to read goal-line usage and spot touchdown regression before it happens.

  2. Route Participation: The Stat Between Snaps and Targets

    Route participation is routes run divided by team dropbacks. It is the stat that exposes phantom snap counts and separates real pass-catchers from blockers.

  3. Target Share and Air Yards: A Receiver's Real Role

    Target share in fantasy football is targets divided by team pass attempts. Here is how to compute it, what the tiers mean, and how air yards change the picture.

  4. Snap Share: The Stat That Comes Before Every Other Stat

    What is snap share in the NFL? It is a player's snaps divided by his team's offensive plays, and it tells you who is about to produce before the box score does.

Fantasy

All fantasy football →

  1. Waiver Wire by Usage: Add Before the Points Show Up

    The best waiver wire fantasy football strategy is buying role changes, not box scores. Here is the signal hierarchy that finds players before everyone else.

  2. The Usage-Based Fantasy Process: A Weekly Routine

    A repeatable fantasy football weekly process built on snap counts and usage data, laid out day by day from Tuesday review through Sunday-morning inactives.

Props

All player props →

  1. Player Props Through a Usage Lens: Process, Not Picks

    An honest NFL player props strategy built from usage data: decompose every prop into opportunity times efficiency, then check if the gap survives the juice.

Explainers

All stat explainers →

  1. The NFL Usage Stats Glossary: Every Metric, Plainly Defined

    A plain-English NFL advanced stats glossary: snap share, target share, route participation, EPA, PROE and 30 more metrics, each with what it is good for.

Teams

All team situations →

  1. Preseason Snap Counts: What August Football Tells You

    Preseason snap counts carry real signal and preseason box scores carry almost none. Here is what to read in August football and what to ignore before Week 1.

  2. Backfield Committees: Reading a Split Before It Burns You

    A taxonomy of the RB committee for fantasy football: five archetypes, the usage signature that identifies each one, and why touch counts hide most of the value.

Everything we've published →